![]() ![]() ![]() This report and follow-up reporting and controversies unleashed a cavalcade of online snark and jokes, but the core revelation is deadly serious: There simply is no theoretical or empirical basis for the belief that restrictions can be broadly lifted in May 2020 without a significant increase in loss of life.ĭepending on whom you ask, the “cubic model” is either risible nonsense or not a forecast at all (or both). Referred to in the original Post report as the “cubic model,” it was attributed to former Council of Economic Advisers Chair Kevin Hassett, and the Post reported that “people with knowledge of that model say it shows deaths dropping precipitously in May - and essentially going to zero by May 15.” The answer, according to a May 4 Washington Post report by William Wan, Lenny Bernstein, Laurie McGinley, and Josh Dawsey, is that the president prefers a different model, one that paints a rosier picture. The Trump administration’s decision to abandon efforts to suppress the coronavirus and even sideline its own task force’s guidelines in favor of a quick lift of restrictions on economic activity naturally prompted the question: Why?Īfter all, models from both the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation that the White House had previously relied on for guidance say that moving to reopen now will likely lead to a substantial increase in the death toll. ![]()
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